Why Aren’t We Talking About Excess Deaths in Countries With High mRNA Vaccine Rates?

Medical commentator John Campbell, Ph.D., examined the differences in excess death figures across countries with varying mRNA COVID-19 vaccination rates.

by Michael Nevradakis, Ph.D.

Five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess deaths remain high in most Western countries, where mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were widely administered, but levels are lower in countries where mRNA vaccines were less commonly used, according to medical commentator John Campbell, Ph.D.

On his YouTube show this week, Campbell analyzed excess death figures from Our World in Data for 20 countries. He examined the differences in excess death figures across countries with varying mRNA COVID-19 vaccination rates.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), excess deaths associated with COVID-19 are defined as “the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”

“It’s the end of May 2025, and we’re still seeing excess deaths in most Western countries, but not in Eastern countries. What could the difference possibly be?” Campbell asked.

Excess deaths remain high in the U.S., where between 2020 and early 2025, they were at least 10% higher than the 2015 to 2019 average. Excess deaths in the U.S. spiked in the second half of 2021 through early 2022, reaching 46%.

“We see excess deaths in the United States a bit above the 10% mark for quite a long period of time,” Campbell said. “This is an ongoing issue compared to 2015 to 2019 levels.”

CDC data published in 2023 showed 155,000 excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 among people ages 15-64.

Campbell observed similarly high excess death rates in several other “highly vaccinated” Western countries during the same period, hovering around 10% in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Singapore and the U.K., and between 10% and 20% in Canada and Ireland.

“This looks like a huge amount of excess deaths in addition to those lost as a result of the pandemic and the mismanagement and malmanagement during the pandemic,” Campbell said.

Referring to South Korea, another “highly vaccinated” country where, as recently as last year, the excess death rate was over 20%, Campbell said these are “horrific figures, which are simply not being talked about.”

Excess death figures ‘unprecedented,’ raise ‘serious concerns’

According to Campbell, excess deaths should have decreased during the pandemic after an initial spike of deaths among those who are most vulnerable.

“The people that might have gone on to die in the next few years that died, kind of all died all of a sudden in 2020. So, we should see a reduction in excess deaths, as we see in Eastern European and other countries.”

Campbell referred to excess death figures from Our World in Data for several non-Western countries, including Armenia, Georgia, Romania and Russia, where the rates from late 2021 on have remained below average.

“This is exactly what we would expect as a result of the pandemic, where vulnerable people for various reasons are no longer with us,” Campbell said. He noted that in some of these countries, including Russia, “they didn’t have any mRNA vaccine rollout, coincidentally.”

Campbell suggested the highest rates of excess deaths are found in countries where the administration of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines was most relevant. Responding to criticisms that correlation does not equal causation, Campbell said that, at the very least, correlation warrants further study.

“What is causing this causality may be adjudicated by larger-scale associations. So, do we have large-scale associations consistent between countries? Have we noticed that it’s consistent between countries … where other explanations are unlikely?” Campbell asked.

Campbell also referenced a 2024 paper in BMJ Public Health analyzing excess deaths in 47 Western countries between 2020 and 2022. According to the paper, “Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has been substantial,” reaching almost 3.1 million across the countries sampled during this period.

“This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns,” the paper stated. “This insight into the overall all-cause excess mortality since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is an important first step for future health crisis policy decision-making.”

According to the paper, contributors include “COVID-19 infection, indirect effects of containment measures and COVID-19 vaccination programmes.”

“Differentiating between the various causes is challenging,” the authors said, citing differences in how deaths are recorded and how causes of death are attributed across countries, while “Consensus is lacking in the medical community regarding when a deceased infected with COVID-19 should be registered as a COVID-19 death.”

Increasing number of studies link excess deaths to vaccines, pandemic measures

In the past year, several peer-reviewed studies have concluded that COVID-19 vaccines and pandemic countermeasures likely contributed to the rise in excess deaths.

A study published last month in the journal Scientific Reports found that, in a sample of seven hospitals in Athens, Greece, during 2022, nearly half of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 were unrelated to the virus.

The BMJ Public Health paper also noted that research has “confirmed profound under-reporting of adverse events, including deaths, after immunization” and that consensus is “lacking in the medical community regarding concerns that mRNA vaccines might cause more harm than initially forecasted.”

A study released last year of excess mortality in 125 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic found that higher-than-average excess deaths were due to the public health establishment’s response and the COVID-19 vaccines.

A peer-reviewed study published in March in Discover Medicine found that Japan recorded an abnormal increase in excess deaths in the years since the COVID-19 vaccines were introduced.

A peer-reviewed study published in July 2024 in the European Society of Medicine’s official journal, Medical Research Archives, found that the number of excess deaths in Australia is positively correlated with the number of COVID-19 booster vaccinations received.

A June 2024 study published in the journal Microorganisms showed that COVID-19 vaccines were linked to an increase in all-cause mortality in Italy.

And a February 2024 study published in the Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health found a “substantial, statistically significant” increase in mortality in Cyprus from all causes in 2021 and 2022 following the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines.

The BMJ Public Health paper called upon policymakers “to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality.”

Campbell agreed. Noting that there has been no such investigation in the U.K., Campbell said he is “disappointed” that governments, the judicial system and coroners have not examined the possible causes contributing to an increase in excess deaths.

“Maybe lives aren’t important. Maybe we’ve got more important things to do,” Campbell said. “I would’ve thought human life is pretty important, but hey, maybe I was wrong.”

Related articles in The Defender

• Nearly Half of ‘COVID Deaths’ Not Caused by the Virus, Researchers Find

• Australian Researcher Finds Link Between COVID Vaccines and Excess Deaths

• Breaking: Largest Study of Its Kind Finds Excess Deaths During Pandemic Caused by Public Health Response, Not Virus

• COVID Vaccines Linked to Increase in All-cause Mortality, Italian Study Shows

• ‘The Dam Has Broken’: Mainstream Media Reports on Study Showing COVID Vaccines Likely Fueled Rise in Excess Deaths

• ‘Unambiguous’: Excess Deaths in Cyprus Tied to COVID Vaccine Rollout